Review of Scorecasting

Title:

Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won

Author:

Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim

Publisher:

Crown Archetype

Date:

2011

ISBN:

978-0-307-59179-1

Pages:

278

Price:

$26.00

Reviewed by Nick Christenson, npc@jetcafe.org

May 13, 2011

Tobias Moskowitz is a professor of finance at the University of Chicago. L. Jon Wertheim is a writer for Sports Illustrated. Scorecasting is their overture into the recently popular book genre of applying a rigorous analysis to the sporting world. As a sports bettor, I've read a bunch of these with an eye toward applying their techniques towards the modeling of sporting events in an attempt to improve my handicapping.

Moskowitz and Wertheim cover a lot of bases in their book. With a more qualitative approach they discuss inconsistent refereeing, competitiveness in sports leagues, diversity in NFL coaching, economics and steroid use in baseball, and other issues. These topics are generally interesting, and I find their conclusions to be compelling.

At times the topics the authors discuss come from academic research regarding sports related issues, some of which I had previously read. They mention the famous 1985 "hot hand" paper regarding the myth of streaky shooting in basketball. They also cover research regarding the practice of icing the kicker in football and how far NFL coaches diverge from optimal strategy. Each of these deserves a much wider audience than it has received, so despite the fact that these topics were familiar to me, I was more than happy to see them included in this book.

The authors also performed their own research on a number of topics, most notably on home field advantage. This topic is one I have extensively researched myself, and I have to say that I have come to some very different conclusions than they. Moskowitz and Wertheim have done some interesting research, but a considerable bit of the data I've collected doesn't line up with their conclusions. Certainly, more work is needed here.

As one might expect from an SI writer, the prose is clear and easy to read. The book is aimed at an audience of sports fans, albeit ones who are willing to think a little bit, so the sorts of mathematical details that I would relish aren't present. I believe that the authors struck a fine balance by providing enough information for someone with mathematical inclinations to reproduce their work without causing eyes to glaze over from even those who choose to skip over box scores. The different essays really fly by, making Scorecasting a much easier read than one might at first expect.

Of the genre of books covering an analytic approach to sports, Scorecasting weighs in about average as far as it's relevance to serious sports bettors. The home field advantage articles are useful. The chapter titled "The Value of a Blocked Shot" makes some good points that those who try to parameterize player performance in basketball should consider. The bits about icing and the relative value of NFL draft picks may not be directly applicable, but it's not hard to imagine how this knowledge might help sports bettors approach certain situations.

So little of what is written specifically on the topic of sports betting is of value that if we want to study to improve our approach to our craft we sometimes need to come at it from different angles. Scorecasting is a light book that's pleasant and easy to read that provides some insight into betting sports, and I think it works as entertainment and provides enough meat to make it worthwhile to the sports bettor looking to improve his handicapping skills. Those who found value in similar books, such as Mathletics, or The Wages of Wins, will be rewarded with Scorecasting.

Capsule:

Scorecasting is aimed at those willing to expend some energy thinking about sports without requiring even the modest levels of mathematical exertion. The book is surprisingly light, and while it is far from being an indispensable handicapping reference, it does provide enough insight to make it worthwhile for both thoughtful sports fans and serious sports bettors.