Review of How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread

Title:

How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread

Author:

Bobby Smith

Publisher:

Skyhorse Publishing, Inc.

Date:

2008

ISBN:

1-60239-307-9

Pages:

153

Price:

$14.95

Reviewed by Nick Christenson, npc@jetcafe.org

June 29, 2011

Sports betting is a tough racket, and it's especially tough for the amateur to sift through all the available data in order to gain an edge in the world of 11 to 10. Some information is good, but much of it is useless, and some is even worse than useless. How to Beat the Pro Football Point Spread contains Bobby Smith's advice on how a bettor can win at NFL betting.

How to Beat the Pro Football Point Spread is divided into three sections, "The Mindset", "The Practical", and "The Tactical". To be honest, from the material I really can't tell what's different between them. One thing I do know is that Smith isn't shy about leveling criticism. He has strong words for non-betting sports fans, he harps on most of the sports media, and he has no time for sports betting conventional wisdom. Some of these targets are quite fair. Unfortunately, after the author has fired his salvo, he doesn't provide much in the way of detail to replace the information he decries.

I counted only a couple of core ideas in the book, and it's not really fair to give away all of them, but I'll provide one example of one of Smith's key ideas that causes me grief. Early in the book he blasts "The Gold Sheet" for emphasizing a team's ATS record, using the example of the New Orleans Saints who were 7-2 ATS as underdogs going into their first game of 2007 where Indianapolis was a 7 point favorite. Of course, New Orleans got blown out that game. So what does this prove? To me it proves nothing, except that Smith is capable of cherry-picking a game that demonstrates his points. What else would one conclude from a sample size of one game?

Worse, later in the book when he's providing his analysis of several games, what information does he include? You guessed it, teams' ATS records. Why is it okay when he lists ATS records and why does this information qualify as "stale pretzel nuggets", as the author calls them, when others cite them? I didn't learn the distinction from this book.

The book is filled with anecdotal examples of games that validate the author's methodologies. Do they hold up to some sort of statistical analysis? Smith rails against other sources of sports betting information for looking at small sample sizes and then uses single games to back up his assertions. He also claims that lines for NFL games are off by 10 points or more. It's true that many times teams beat the spread by margins much larger than this, but that doesn't mean the closing line was that far off. I really don't have much to say to handicappers who think the NFL betting market is that inefficient, and I don't think it's a good use of my time to listen to them.

There just aren't that many ideas in this book. Those that are present are probably worth checking out using some sound statistical analysis, but that doesn't happen here. Instead, we get shrill sniping at everyone who doesn't see the sports betting world just as Bobby Smith does. The book tries to come off as an advertisement for Smith's web site, sportsreporter.com, but if their methodology is anything like this book, I want no part of it. My shelves are filled with sports betting books that nobody should read. Today I add another volume to that stack. Pass.

Capsule:

How to Beat the Pro Football Point Spread is a shrill book that contains few ideas while hurling insults at the rest of the sporting world. The ideas that are here are backed entirely by anecdote and assertion proclaiming how smart the author's predictions are. I didn't find much of value here, and certainly nothing to justify spending one's time or money on this book.